bigideas

Phil presented Newcomb’s Paradox to us last night. I’ll summarise the paradox:

There are two boxes: Box A and Box B. Box A always contains $1,000. Box B either contains $1,000,000 or nothing. You can either choose to open and keep the contents of both boxes or of just Box B.

 It might seem that opening both boxes is the best option. However there is a twist. An entity called The Predictor gets to decide whether Box B contains the cash or not. The Predictor claims to be able to predict your choice and will alter the contents of Box B accordingly, in advance of your decision. The Predictor will put the money in Box B if it predicts that you will open Box B only. If it predicts you will open both boxes, it will put nothing in Box B. You know that The Predictor gets its predictions right in the vast majority of cases.

Will you open both boxes, or just Box B?

Our debate last night had several threads. We picked up on the implications for Free Will if The Predictor is able to foresee human actions to such a degree – does The Predictor have priviliged access to information about our universe that means that it is ultimately a deterministic universe? If so, can The Predictor predict when it is going to be wrong? Or do we just have to accept The Predictor’s powers are of unknown origin and are above the laws of our universe?